BY AGUNWA UZENDU, ABUJA
The battles are getting more intense, the intrigues becoming more complex and the alliances more unpredictable as political parties devise strategies to outsmart the other to throw up a candidate that will become the successor of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023.
The successful delisting of 74 political parties by the INEC now leaves the stage for only 18 parties to take part in the process.
With the primaries of all political parties concluded at the end of the June 9 deadline given by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the 2023 presidential election is evidently a three-way race between the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).
The ruling APC has former governor of Lagos state, Bola Ahmed Tinubu as its presidential candidate, while the PDP and LP have former vice president Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra state governor, Mr Peter Obi as presidential candidates, respectively.
ll Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) produced Peter Umeadi as its presidential flag bearer, New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) elected Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as its Presidential flag bearer, Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) produced its National Chairman Chief Dan Nwanyanwu just as Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) has Kola Abiola and Prince Adewole Adebayo is the candidate of Social Democratic Party (SDP).
African Democratic Congress (ADC) has Dumebi Kachukwu as its Presidential candidate just as Young Progressives Party (YPP) produced Prince Malik Ado-Ibrahim, while Mr Yabaji Sani, Chairman of the Inter-party Advisory Committee (IPAC) and National Chairman of the Action Democratic Party (ADP) also emerged as the party’s Presidential candidate.
Furthermore, Professor Christopher Imumolen emerged as the Presidential candidate of the Accord Party (AA), while Mazi Okwudili Nwa-Anyajike emerged as the Presidential flag bearer of National Rescue Movement (NRM).
The political calculations
Aside APC, PDP, NNPP, LP and perhaps SDP, there are strong indications that the other parties might form alliances and engage in some degree to trade-offs so as to confront the other bigger parties. Their candidates may even step down and work with other parties as witnessed in 2019.
One factor that will change the political permutations is the choice of running mate. It is generally expected that PDP will beam its search for Vice Presidential candidate on the South, while APC as well as LP will go to the North.
Atiku and the PDP are aware of the implication of staying out of power for the next 8 years as the wound of the 2015 defeat is yet to heal. There are strong indications that the PDP will settle for a serving governor in the South South, who has the acceptability and capacity to mop up all the votes from Southern states.
However, the emergence of Tinubu as the candidate of the APC puts the party under pressure to review the plan and perhaps consider the South West in the permutation for Vice President or even possible replacement for the Sen. Iyorchia Ayu if Atiku eventually wins the general election as going ahead without the South West implies that the zone will surrender its votes completely to Tinubu, who already has tight grip on most of the states.
PDP will no doubt have a clean sweep of the North East, while the North West especially Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Gombe will be a battle ground for Atiku, Kwankwaso, Tinubu and perhaps Obi, that is if Labour Party is able to get a strong politician as his running mate. But Obi will also be banking on the vote of Igbo traders in the zone, who, according to statistics, form the largest race in every state outside the indigenous people.
The North Central will be a free zone, but there are expectations that PDP will bounce back in Kwara and Niger states. Depending on how the ruling party is able to manage Gov. Yahaya Bello, who is presently angry with Abdullahi Adamu, the National Chairman of APC. Kogi state may be an open battle ground that will harvest from the financial war of the APC and PDP candidates.
Aside Kwara and Niger states, there are indications that other North Central states will buy into the candidacy of Peter Obi as the zone had always expressed support for a President from the South East.
Recently, during the inauguration of the National Movement for a Nigeria President of South-East Extraction 2023 in Enugu, the President General of the Middle Belt group, Comrade Timothy Hembaor, said that the zone has resolved to work with the South East to ensure that it clinches the Presidency in 2023.
The South West is a no go area for PDP, except Oyo State, where they have a serving governor. Ekiti State PDP is still held down by the ‘war’ between former governor Ayo Fayose and his former Deputy Sen. Biodun Olujimi and may not form a formidable force to wedge the incursions of the APC.
Reacting to the situation in Ekiti, a Chieftain of the party in the state who wants to remain anonymous said, “Fayose is Tinubu’s boy and worked for Wike during the PDP presidential primary. It is not likely that he will work to deliver Atiku in Ekiti state.”
The strategy and diplomacy PDP employs in managing Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike will determine the fortunes of the party in the South South, though, after losing the primary election, Wike pledged to work with Atiku to ensure that the party returns to the villa.
Though governor Okowa is among the top contenders for the position of the Vice President, it is believed that, with the support of Akwa Ibom state governor, Udom Emmanuel, former governors of cross Rivers State Liyel Imoke and Donald Duke, the damages which former National Caretaker Secretary of APC Sen. John Akpan Udo-Edehe (who has already defected to NNPP) will cause in the zone, the chances of PDP sweeping the South South is brighter.
Stand of South East
The South East and Ohaneze Ndigbo has been emphatic on the need to elect the next President from the South East.
Reacting to the emergence of Tinubu as the Presidential candidate of the APC, and collaborating the agitations of Presidential aspirants from the South East including Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, Sen. Ken Nnamani and Emeka Nwajiuba, Ohanaeze Secretary-General, Mazi Okechukwu Isiguzoro, in a statement said the parties and displayed great injustice to the zone and warned that the refusal of the leading political parties to give presidential ticket to the South-East would come with consequences.
He urged the youths to continue the ongoing massive campaign for Continuous Voters’ Registration (CVR), describing it as a “proof that their super firepower on social media can be converted to real votes to salvage their beloved country, Nigeria.”
The South East no doubt is the strong hold of Peter Obi and the Labour Party who few days to the Presidential Primary abandoned PDP due to the monetization of the process and the hijack of the party structure in the state by Chris Ubah and his cohorts.
Efforts are being intensified of late to ensure that the zone is massively mobilized to get their PVCs, which has been their greatest albatross.
The Catholic Church, which is the largest Christian domination in the zone in which Obi is a member is on the fore front of voter sensitization and PVC registration.
Obi’s supporters have hijacked the social media space but whether their deafening online campaign and followership will translate to victory at the polls will be confirmed on the 25th of February, 2023.
The APC will also make a big statement in Ebonyi state where Gov. Dave Umahi would want to prove to Sen. Pius Anyim and Sam Egwu that he still controls the voters in the state, despite his defection to the ruling party. This will also be the case in Imo State where Gov. Hope Uzodimma of APC is on the saddle. Though the APC in Imo state is still factionalized and unpopular, the feud between former governor of the state Emeka Ihedioha and PDP National Secretary, Sen. Sam Anyanwu may give the APC a leeway to give Tinubu a plum vote.
Analyst’s take
A political analyst, Abubakar Dambazzu opined that the 2023 election may come with a twist where regional, ethnic and religious emotions will get prominence.
He said that despite all alignments and clamour for power shift, the North will never forget to line up behind Atiku.
“What played out during the PDP convention where Gov. Tambuwal had to step down for Atiku despite his strong bonding and support from Wike may also play out during the general election. You should expect that some APC governors and even party officials will work for Atiku. The North wants to always hold onto power even when it does not translate to the development of the region,” Danbazzu stated.
According to him, a leading candidate may not get all the needed two third votes in the required states to declare a winner of the election. He said that he will expect a run-off in many states before a winner can emerge.