By Dr Abubakar Mohammed SaniÂ
Nigeria, the once great Nigeria that is unanimously referred to as the Giant of Africa, is now at the mercy of armed opposition groups (AOGs) and criminals. I have no time to border you with the stories of Boko Haram, ISWAP, banditry and ESN. What I want to address is the satanic merger and fusion between Boko Haram insurgents and bandits in the northwest. Yes, Boko Haram and the bandits realized the advantage of the economy of scale in the distribution of violence; this is something that someone like me had to attend a course at Oxford under Professor Paul Collier to understand. The merger between Boko Haram and the bandits first came to my attention after I watched an exclusive video where Mujahid Ibrahim Amuta referred to his brethren in Zamfara, Niger and other places like the Niger and Chad Republics. First, let me begin with a brief background on both Boko Haram and the bandits.
There are those who say the Boko Haram terrorist group started in the year 2001 as an unpopular Islamic extremist sect in Gaidam, Yobe state, and that the sons of many prominent Borno/Yobe families were part of the sect, which was known as the Taliban as of then. The sect was quashed through the use of military might, but when a prominent Borno politician known as Ali Modu Sheriff showed interest in ousting his father’s business associate as governor of Borno State in 2003, a residue of the group reached out to Sheriff for partnership under one condition—that he would implement Sharia Law. This group’s residue has since metamorphosed into Jamaatul ahl lil Sunna lil Daawati wal Jihad. A charismatic young cleric known as Muhammad Yusuf was its leader. This partnership with Sheriff paid off when Mala Kachalla was defeated in the 2003 gubernatorial election. The group was rewarded with the position of commissioner of the ministry of religious affairs in Borno state. The partnership, however, did not last long because Sheriff refused to totally implement Sharia and so Yusuf ordered his representative to resign from the cabinet of Sheriff. There was a clash with the police when the group refused to put on crash helmets, and this clash led to the death of six members of the sect. Yusuf asked the government of Borno State for an apology, but Sheriff refused. So, Yusuf told his followers to get revenge for the deaths of their fellow comrades. The group attacked different police units in June 2009, which led an ailing President Umaru Yaradua to order a military crackdown on the group. The military dealt decisively with the group and succeeded in apprehending Yusuf whom they handed over to the police. The police, it was alleged, murdered him on the orders of Sheriff. The group went underground and then reappeared as a deadly group that specialized in hit-and-run attacks, assassinations, and destruction of property. It got the attention of some politicians and international jihadists who supported it with resources to procure arms and terrorized Nigerians through suicide bombing and bloodletting. They let pandemonium loosed on innocent Nigerians. When the group saw that it was about to be totally neutralized by the military in 2017, it ran to Abu al-Baghadadi and pledged loyalty. Instead of recognizing Abubakar Shekau, Abumusab alBarnawi, alias Habib, Yusuf’s son, was recognized, causing Shekau to de-identify with the group. From then on, Boko Haram split into two groups. The group led by Shekau was called Jamaatil ahlil Sunna (JAS), and the group led by alBarnawi with the help of Muhammad Nur was called the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP).
As for the bandits, I do not know much about them, but most people agree that some of them were hardworking herdsmen who got hardened because of cattle rustling, which was sometimes aided by the police. People took advantage of them and stole their cattle and got away with it because our justice system is weak. Some of the bandits were also imported from neighboring countries like Niger and the Chad Republics for political reasons. They came into the country as mercenaries and fighters who wanted to identify with a fellow tribesman who might be shortchanged in the 2015 presidential elections. The banditry phenomenon was created and armed by some politicians who failed to disarm them when they were no longer useful or needed. It is similar with the Niger Delta militants. They were formed and armed by politicians to win elections in the early 2000s.The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) says that bandits killed more than 2,600 civilians in 2021. This is almost three times as many as they killed in 2020 and a lot more than Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) did in the same year. Unlike the Boko Haram fighters, who anchor their movement on the Qur’an and follow a strict code of ethics (especially ISWAP), the bandits are an unruly bunch of people that have no regard for God or man or any authority. On December 11, 2020, armed men riding motorbikes kidnapped more than 300 boys from a boarding school in Kankara, a tiny town in the Katsina region of northwesterly Nigeria. The act mirrored Boko Haram’s operating style, and the organization’s commander, Abubakar Shekau immediately released a video of the abducted children after claiming responsibility for the attack in an audio message.
Mujahid Ibrahim Amuta is now late and, from what I hear, he died along with Shekau. He was the one who made a video in 2020 addressing his brothers in Zamfara, Niger, Niger and Chad republics. At that time, there was no partnership between the Boko Haram insurgents and the bandits, but the insurgents had some cells in those places. The bandits were even fighting the insurgents whenever they met each other. This would all change after the death of Shekau because his followers were running for their lives. ISWAP fighters were hunting them down, and the military was also looking for them. This made most of them surrender to the military, and a small number began to identify with the bandits to kidnap people for ransom. As usual, the government watched this development with disdain and a regular “I don’t care” attitude.
In early 2022, the leaders of ISWAP made an unusual request to the government and its military—they wanted to trade some soldiers they had kidnapped for their members. The government declined, which is a good decision. But I became worried when the same request was made after the kidnap of the Kaduna-Abuja train passengers in May. Initially, I thought it was the bandits that planned and executed the kidnap, but eventually I saw the same group who made the earlier request demanding the release of their commanders, only that this time around they said “you know what we want.” What other proof do we need to convince us that the bandits are now working together with the Boko Haram ISWAP fighters? As usual, some people refused to believe that we are witnessing an economy of scale in political violence, so the handlers of the government’s security architecture continued with their lackadaisical attitude. No proactive measures were taken.
Then the Kuje prison break happened, and lo and behold, nearly 70 terrorists were freed. These were the same terrorists that the ISWAP/Bandits or Bokodints requested for their exchange with some soldiers that they had taken as hostages. In fact, one of the freed terrorists was later seen in the forests together with the bandits flogging the remaining hostages and boasting that he would abduct the president. Ladies and gentlemen, we are now confronted with ISWAP, bandits, and bokodints. My understanding is that there is still ongoing discussion between the groups on how to solidify their merger, and the major issue of contention is on the issue of leadership and code of ethics. The ISWAP fighters will make every effort to convert the bandits to their own brand of Islam and subjugate them under their control and command. If precautions are not taken, the 2023 elections may be canceled due to the widespread violence and terrorism that this new formation will unleash on Nigeria.
What is the way out?
I have said this time and again. The government must increase its spending on intelligence gathering and also arrest and prosecute offenders no matter who they are. Next to that is to deploy superior technology in the fight against the enemies of the state. For example, the Israelis use cell phones to capture and kill their enemies. They do so by zoning in on the location of the enemy, phoning him to confirm his voice and location by GPS signal , and then firing a missile that can fire at the target within seconds of the call. And they have perfected this strategy so that they can aim their hits within fourteen centimetres of accuracy. I also believe that it is high time for the government to reach out to the terrorist groups and talk. After all, a renowned scholar once stated that insurgency is politics through arms conflict. “With terrorism, there is always (by definition) an individual or terrorist group working toward a political goal for which they are willing to use terrorist violence. The group adheres to or develops an ideology that it then uses to convince its adherents that terrorism is justified,” said Anne Speckhard. Therefore, as the military continues with their stick approach, the political leaders should use the carrot too. The United States negotiated with the Talibans, and at the moment, Mahamat Ithno of Chad is negotiating with armed opposition groups in Doha.
I have taken time to read and study the Terrorism Act (2022) and I am convinced that some public officials in Nigeria need to be sued. Part One, Section 2 (2c) reads, “A person or body corporate, within or outside Nigeria, who knowingly, directly or indirectly omits to do anything that is reasonably necessary to prevent an act of terrorism commits an offence and is liable on conviction….” I need not to mention here that some people especially among the top echelons of the security architecture ought to be sued and prosecuted because they have deliberately and in some instances willfully looked the other way, and through that allowed acts of terrorism to be carried out. There are things that are “reasonably necessary” for these top echelons of the security architecture to do but they haven’t done that, and as a result the enemy is having a free ride. People cannot just be killed and property destroyed, and no one is held accountable and punished.
In conclusion, social alienation and marginalization are all major triggers of political violence, and the government has no option to solving this but to begin a concerted effort towards correcting this through social justice and equity for all. Yes, most political violence in Africa is caused by either greed or grievances. The successful political leader is the one who succeeds in managing these two complexities. From what I have been taught, any society that leaves with a GDP of less than $2500 will be confronted with the strong winds of political violence. Nigeria’s GDP per capita is roughly $2,000. Botswana is $7300 and Morocco is $3500. We must find innovative ways to reinvigorate the economy and create jobs through MSMEs.
Let no one think that business can continue as usual; we are in tumultuous times.