By Vincent Nwanma
Like the inflation figures it released last week, the latest growth rates announced by the National Bureau of Statistics confirm the discrepancy between Nigerians’ reality and the reported performance of the economy. They also show how much work lies ahead for those saddled with the management of this economy.
In other words, Nigerians are looking for growth that addresses the current ravaging cost-of-living crisis that has left many citizens grappling with uncommon levels of deprivation. It means that in addition to growth, Nigerians need development because that is what will put food on their tables at affordable prices and ensure that there is a roof over their heads and that they are able to send their children to school.
The NBS told Nigerians on Monday that the economy grew by 3.13 per cent in real terms in the first three months of this year, up from the 2.27 per cent recorded in the same period last year. The announcement came against the background of the latest rebasing of the economy, which is the biggest part of the narrative. The rebasing of the GDP covered the period between 2019 to 2023, with 2019 as the new base year. In nominal terms, the economy grew to N372.82 trillion from N205.09 trillion in the base year of 2019, according to the NBS.
As in the 2014 exercise, rebasing of the gross domestic product measurement has always produced mixed results. There is excitement on the part of the government officials because the resultant growth figures give the impression of policies working, hence the growth. On the part of ordinary folks – or those who represent them, there is caution because the narrative could just be out of sync with reality.
This is also the case now. With the new base year, Nigeria’s GDP at current prices stood at 372.8 trillion naira ($243 billion) in 2024, after the base year for calculating the figure was shifted to 2019.
The trouble with these growth figures and the values they produce is that they occur despite the harsh situations that citizens experience. This is the case now. Inflation is currently 22.22 per cent and was generally higher in the first quarter. This high inflation (we have gone through higher rates) is reducing Nigerians’ purchasing power, which has made life difficult for them, especially for low-income earners. Many cannot afford basic goods and services. For low-income families, the challenge is much more difficult.
There is significant similarity between the event of Monday, July 21, 2025, and the same event that occurred on Sunday, April 6, 2014, at a colourful ceremony in Abuja, Nigeria’s political capital. It is a moment used by governments to showcase the effectiveness of their policies, as far as numbers are concerned. It is not peculiar to the current administration, for clarification. I captured what happened at the 2014 event in my book, When Stocks Got Suck: The Fall and Rise of Nigeria’s Capital Market, thus:
The excitement in official quarters that preceded the rebasing result and the exercise itself was quite understandable. Since the 1930s, when it was devised, GDP has become for the government the singular most significant symbol of achievement. So, anything that shows that the economy grew over time is a good advertisement for the government of the day. It is a universal phenomenon, and not just a Nigerian thing. That means that despite the criticism that trailed the exercise, any other government that undertook such an exercise would like to flaunt it as an ‘A’ score.
This explains the variance between the picture of a growing economy and the reality of life in Nigeria at the time. The concept of “growth without development,” which characterises Nigeria’s experience, aptly describes the coexistence of growth and rising unemployment, for instance, in an economy. It is just akin to a train taking off from Lagos to Kano, with a few passengers on board, most of them in the executive cabin, while thousands are left behind at the Departure Lounge. By the time the train arrives at Kano, some of the passengers in the lower cabins have unfortunately fallen off. Sure, the train has made the trip to its destination, but the relevant question to ask is: how efficient was the journey?
No doubt, the economy needs to grow better and achieve higher rates of growth with a concomitant reduction in the general price level. We need to return the years of growth rates of seven per cent or higher. The Nigerian economy grew at 7.87 per cent in 2010 and decelerated marginally to 7.69 per cent in 2011. What will it take for a repeat of this performance and perhaps even better?
What it does not is a continuation of growth without development. The concept of growth without development interrogates the effectiveness of the growth process, economic indicators as measures of the state of an economy, and the citizens. It seeks answers to the question: Who does the economy grow for, or who benefits from economic growth? This is the question Nigerians are asking now.