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Making Real the Emi l’okan Declaration

By Abubakar Mohammed Sani

There are not many Nigerian politicians who have boasted to become president and actually be it. From the First Republic to now, not one of them made it known publicly that his life ambition is to one day rule Nigeria. Obafemi Awolowo never did, neither did Nnamdi Azikiwe, Aminu Kano nor Ibrahim Waziri all of who committed their later years and even more human and material resources to pursuing that dream. A school teacher, Shehu Shagari had no ambition beyond becoming a senator of the Federal Republic. He ended up being president for four years and three months.

Even military rulers never imagined or boasted they would one day be heads of state. The first coup in January 1966 brought in Aguiyi Ironsi by virtue of his position as the most senior military officer in the army then. The reprisal putsch in July of the same year saw Yakubu Gowon emerge as head of state only to be toppled in another take over in 1975. Gowon’s successor Murtala Mohammed was himself overthrown and killed on February 13 1976, paving way for Olusegun Obasanjo who, it was said, cried after it became clear he would be head of state.

Even OBJ’s second coming as a civilian president in 1999 was almost serendipitous, according to knowledgeable accounts, same thing for Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan who came after him. Though he angled for the presidency thrice and failed, it is not certain Muhammadu Buhari ever made a public pronouncement his life ambition is to rule Nigeria before occupying that office in 2015.

So, when Bola Ahmed Tinubu presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress publicly declared during his campaign last June in Abeokuta capital of Ogun state that his life ambition is to one day become president of Nigeria, political pundits and sundry commentators thought he had gone too far.

For one, it smacked of arrogance and hubris, as if it was a done deal for him to win an election that was still months away. For politicians who keep their innermost thoughts to themselves, it was considered in many political circles as an unguarded utterance, sort of an impolitic thing to say in public. Tinubu’s political detractors and admirers alike took it to mean that, having made possible Buhari’s presidency, it was now his turn to become president of Nigeria.

Of course, political analysts of all stripes took on the candidate from the get-go, some wondering what his turn was to do.

Writing in his opinion page of the Punch in September 13 2022 headlined “Emi l’okan: Tinubu’s turn to do what?”  Tayo Oke pointedly noted the candidate’s self-assuredness and cockiness in his declaration and his determination to win.

“It is neither a plea nor a bargain,” Oke observed in his piece. “It is a stake on a claim not given to negotiations. It is throwing down the gauntlet and challenging any objector to a duel. It is a readiness and an invitation to settle the score without further ado. In short, it is saying now or never. It is partly bravery, and partly bravado, but there is no mistaking the intention. It is all or nothing.”

Nine months after the pronouncement, the man who would be president of Nigeria finally got his wish. Following months of combative campaigning and subsequent election on February 25, INEC declared the APC candidate winner of the just concluded election on March 1. For him, it was a dream come true, of willing something to be and actually making it happen, a rarity in the annals of politics in Nigeria’s history.

With 8,794,726 votes, the man known by several monikers (Asiwaju, Jagaban) easily trounced 17 other presidential wannabes in the polls, including Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Peter Obi of LP and Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP. How he got the mandate has now generated a lot of controversy with candidates of the opposition parties claiming foul play. How the courts will adjudicate on the matter should be of interest to Nigerians and the rest of the world watching keenly as the months roll by. For now however, Tinubu’s ‘Nostradamic’ prediction is still the talk of the town.

A long walk to the presidency

If there’s any truth to Tinubu’s ambition to rule Nigeria, then it started way back in time and not a recent development. In fact, some say it started way back in 1992, the same year Atiku began his bid for the presidency. Not many Nigerians remember now that the former vice president contested as a presidential aspirant under the Social Democratic Party. He lost to MKO Abiola in the primaries.

At about the same time, too, another politician in the same party had his sight as a senator of the Federal Republic representing Lagos West district. Tinubu won, starting off a brilliant political career that was truncated briefly after June 12 presidential election was annulled by the military government of Ibrahim Babangida a year later. From politics, he would become a member of the National Democratic Coalition formed in 1994 with the twin objectives of making Sani Abacha step down as head of state as well as restoring MKO’s stolen mandate.

Both failed, forcing some of the core members of NADECO into exile. Tinubu was one of them and only returned after Abacha’s sudden death in June 1998. The president-elect put on his political garb once again after General Abdusalami Abubakar blew the whistle for the current political dispensation to begin in 1998. Along with like-minded politicos, Tinubu formed the Alliance for Democracy and became the party’s flag bearer as governor of Lagos state. He won and then secured a resounding victory for a second tenure in 2003.

From then on, you could say Tinubu was on a roll politically, handpicking his successors in the littoral state and also spreading his political tentacles across a broad spectrum of the political divide in the country, forming alliances with progressive minded politicians like him. His effort at bridge building paid off most times and handsomely too, most famously in forming an alliance of progressive political parties (APC) resulting in the election of PMB in 2015, a point attested to by the current president himself.

“If Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not participate, there wouldn’t have been a merger and there wouldn’t have been an APC government at the centre,” PMB once admitted in an interview. “That is absolutely clear.”

One time governor of Rivers state and erstwhile Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi corroborated the president’s view in another interview:  “I think what was important is that he was able to gather the political class together – it was key, more than gathering the populace, because once you gather the leadership of the political class then you could ensure there was unanimity of purpose and they could sell jointly this CHANGE mantra…He is a progressive.”

In a balanced profile on Tinubu published by Premium Times soon after his electoral victory last Wednesday, Bisi Abidoye commented thusly reflecting on his long journey from being a political minnow to the heavyweight he has morphed into.

“Mr. Tinubu has consistently played major roles in party politics since 1992 when he was elected senator for Lagos West District,” Abidoye writes. “He has since then been governor of Lagos for eight years. But unlike his three main opponents, including former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), who returned fourth, this was the first time he would be running for president, whether in the party primaries or general elections. His victory means that he took the prize on first attempt, just like Shehu Shagari, Olusegun Obasanjo and Umaru Yar’adua before him.”

That victory, Abidoye states clear in the article headlined “Profile: The man Tinubu and his thorny path to presidential victory,” was not so certain at some point. “It seemed on many occasions, between the point that he declared his bid and the certification of his election early Wednesday morning, that the feat might elude him. Mr. Tinubu was the first in the APC to announce his bid. That was in January 2022, after a meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari at the presidential villa in Abuja.

“The choice of location or timing of the announcement seemed to have been a strategic design to create the impression that President Muhammadu Buhari was in full support of the former governor’s ambition. But after several weeks of hesitation, many other aspirants declared too, including some ministers assumed to be close to the president.

“And when Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, an associate of Mr. Tinubu, also declared, it was taken as a confirmation that the president did not want the former Lagos governor, his most important political ally since they formed the APC in 2013, to succeed him. Mr. Tinubu’s presidential ambition finally seemed imperiled a few days before the party primaries when he made the controversial “Emi lokan” (it is my turn) remark in Abeokuta, Ogun State while addressing party delegates. It was taken as a public attack on the president and the last kicks of a dying horse. But after a few more days of intrigues in the party, Mr. Tinubu recorded a stunning landslide victory at the APC national convention in Abuja.”

Continuing, the journalist surmised that “it did not take long before the speculation that the president was not supportive of his candidature regained life. Mr. Tinubu seemed to confirm the speculation when at a campaign stop again in Abeokuta, he spoke out against a fuel supply shortage that had lingered for several months across the country, and a currency redesign policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai, later said on television that some fifth columnists at the presidency designed the two disruptive policies to incite voters against the APC at the general elections…It was under these circumstances that the APC went into the elections on Saturday. And the outcome underscored widespread dissatisfaction with the ruling party. In the presidential poll, it came top in only 12 states across the country, down from 19 when Mr. Buhari was reelected in 2019. Mr. Tinubu also lost Lagos, his stronghold since 1999, to the Labour Party while Mr. Buhari’s Katsina flipped to the PDP. In the North of Nigeria, where it had been dominant since 2015, the APC won only six of the 15 states in which it has governors.”

A difficult and daunting task no doubt for the Lion of Bourdillion but he won all the same. And in any case, if there’s any Nigerian politician with battle scars to show for his gladiatorial combats in the past up to now, Tinubu has a claim.

He literally fought off President Obasanjo calling the shots from Aso Villa when he denied Lagos state the much-needed Federal allocation for years. What was OBJ’s reason? To the consternation of the Federal Government, Tinubu created more local government developing authorities in the state he presided over. The battle lasted long and it was only after Yar’Adua became president that Lagos state got his share of the Federal allocation OBJ deprived the state of.

The president=elect was also accused of keeping Lagos state smack in his pocket from when he became governor in 1999 till date. How did he do it? By having a major say in those elected governor after him. One who fell out with him never got a second tenure – evidence of Tinubu’s dictatorial tendencies.

His travails continued up until October 2020 during the ENDSARS Youth protest across the country. Somehow be was the target of barbed attacks by the demonstrators in Lagos. He wisely stayed off the streets and only made his appearance after the protesters had been disbanded.

Tinubu became the butt of jokes soon after his declaration to join the presidential race. Some carped about the state of his health, even his birth and educational qualifications were questioned with the thoroughness and doggedness of a sleuth on the trail of a long-sought-for criminal. Skit makers and photo shop tyros and experts had their day, as well, turning the man into a sort of doddery individual who cannot lift a cup of tea without his hands quivering like a feverish patient.

Journalists and sundry commentators took on him severally, on his supposed invincibility as a power broker and strategist. In one article, for instance, a reporter that having attained this much power and influence, the next route was downhill for Tinubu. “Those who know a thing or two about the law of diminishing returns are worried Tinubu’s ambition might be truncated for that very reason. There’s only one way to go after a man has reached the pinnacle of his career – downhill. BAT has got it all: senator, governor, kingmaker, revered party leader, close confidant of pols and princes, friends with ordinary folk in the street, read road transport workers, and an adulation from some in the South-west comparable to that bestowed on religious revolutionaries or benevolent leaders.”

Editor in chief of TELL magazine, Nosa Igiebor, was more bruising in his assessment and chances of Tinubu winning the presidency in a piece published days to the election. Headlined “Tinubu’s Life,” Igiebor made very clear from the start the rise and rise of Tinubu. “He has been celebrated for years by his army of acolytes as the grandmaster of political strategies. His reputation was further burnished and his place atop the country’s political pyramid confirmed by the historic triumph of the All Progressives Congress in 2015 general elections.”

Igiebor went on to compare the subject of his piece to a god. “He was transformed from the Emperor of Lagos and political overseer of the South-west to Capone of the APC and given the grandiloquent title of national leader.” But as the campaigns continued, Igiebor wrote in the article, Tinubu began to show signs of not quite been up to it, especially physically. “He has been a sorry spectacle talking gibberish, his tentative dance steps notwithstanding, showing signs of physical frailty and supplying rich materials for skit makers and comedians. He’s become the subject of uncountable memes. The emperor always showing up without clothes.”

Against all possible odds, against what the bookmakers predicted would be the outcome of the presidential election, the man won nonetheless, defeating an old timer and rival like Atiku. Though as question now hangs over his victory, Tinubu will be sworn in as president of Nigeria on May 29, becoming the only Nigerian politician who made real his life ambition, something close to triumph of the will.