By Abubakar Mohammed Sani
Another significant test is coming for Nigeria’s democracy. Elections for the presidency, parliament, and state assemblies are scheduled for February 25 and March 11, 2023, respectively. Since Nigeria switched from military to civilian rule in 1999, there have been six elections before these ones. They will particularly highlight new technology and the largest and youngest electorate the nation has ever seen. My attention today will be on the 2023 general elections. I am concerned about the capacity of INEC, sincerity of our politicians and the degree of the electorates to see that we have a peaceful election. I deliberately omitted the security establishment because if these three forces can join hands together and works towards a transparent and peaceful elections, the elections will be peaceful.
The upcoming elections in Nigeria are a source of great concern due to the potential for violence. This is especially true given the presence of Boko Haram, separatist groups, and other militant organizations that have been known to use violence to achieve their goals. A run-off election in Nigeria, which would be the first in the nation, is not entirely improbable because the campaign for president would predominantly be a three-way contest. In order to ensure a peaceful election, it is important that we work towards peace and understanding between all parties involved.
The intense acrimony, especially among the three major political parties and their presidential candidates, has made tension very high. The situation is worrisome because the presidential candidates as well as their parties are no longer running issue based campaigns but are instead running propaganda and insulting one another. I was petrified when I saw Dino Melaye insulting the parents of the APC vice presidential candidate because, according to him, the latter insulted Atiku Abubakar. The ethnic, religious, and regional identities of the candidates have already polarized the forthcoming elections. Already, we are seeing a large proportion of people from the southeast and Christians from the north identifying with Peter Obi because of religion.
Nigerian electoral authorities have taken significant steps to ensure the integrity of the upcoming election, which is expected to be a complex and demanding process. These measures include deploying a range of security measures, establishing a secure voting framework, and increasing public awareness about the process. These steps are aimed at ensuring that the election is free, fair, and transparent, and the results will be accepted by the Nigerian people. Furthermore, the authorities are working to ensure that the voting process is accessible to all eligible citizens and that their voices are properly heard.
With over 210 million citizens, Nigeria is one of the most populous countries in Africa. Of this population, more than 90 million Nigerians will be eligible to vote in the 2023 General Elections. This number of registered voters accounts for a large portion of the Nigerian population and will have a significant effect on the outcome of the election. It is important that Nigerians take their civic duty seriously and use their vote to ensure their voice is heard in the election.
This is a far larger number than the 84 million people who were eligible to vote in 2019, and it is also larger than the electorates of all of West Africa’s other fourteen countries combined. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is using a number of technology advancements in order to combat election fraud and bolster the credibility of the voting process.
Several components exacerbate the threats of violence. Firstly, pervasive safety issues stretch throughout numerous regions of the nation. These encompass Islamist militants – Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province – in the North East, bandits as well as ranchers and cultivators in dispute in the North West and North Central regions, Biafra separatists in the South East, and criminal gangs in the Niger Delta. These difficulties are having an effect on election arrangements and could hamper the ballot in several areas, thus increasing the probability of post-election demonstrations that may deteriorate into street clashes or worse.
Politicians across the parties are stockpiling new Naira notes in order to bribe voters during the election season. This practice is illegal and unethical, as it undermines the integrity of the electoral process. It also creates an uneven playing field, as those with more money can buy more votes. This can lead to a situation where the candidate with the most money, rather than the most popular policies, wins the election.
Furthermore, this practice has a detrimental effect on the economy. The stockpiling of new Naira notes leads to a shortage of currency in circulation, which can lead to inflation and other economic problems. This can have a negative impact on the lives of ordinary citizens, who are already struggling with poverty and unemployment.
In addition to stockpiling new Naira notes, our politicians also make use of thugs to intimidate and influence voters. This practice is even more dangerous than stockpiling new Naira notes, as it can lead to violence and even death. It also creates an atmosphere of fear and mistrust, which can lead to a lack of participation in the electoral process.
The use of thugs is also illegal and unethical, as it violates the rights of citizens to freely express their opinions and participate in the democratic process. Furthermore, it undermines the legitimacy of the electoral process, as it is impossible to know whether or not the votes were cast freely and without coercion.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) report on the 2023 general elections identifies several political and social factors that make these six states particularly vulnerable to election-related violence. Firstly, the report notes that these states have a history of political instability and violence, with a number of high-profile incidents occurring in recent years. This has created an atmosphere of mistrust and tension between different political factions, which could easily spill over into violence during the elections. Additionally, the report highlights the fact that these states have large populations of marginalized and disenfranchised people, who may be more likely to resort to violence as a means of expressing their grievances.
Given the potential for violence, it is important that we work towards peace and understanding between all parties involved in the upcoming elections. This is important not only for the safety of those involved, but also for the stability of the country as a whole. A peaceful election will ensure that all voices are heard and that the will of the people is respected. It will also help to create an atmosphere of trust and understanding between all parties involved, which is essential for a successful democracy.
Conclusion:
In order to reduce the risk of election-related violence in these states, the ICG report recommends a number of steps. Firstly, it suggests that the Nigerian government should increase its presence in these states in order to provide a visible deterrent against potential violence. Additionally, it recommends that the government should work with local leaders to ensure that all citizens are able to exercise their right to vote without fear of intimidation or violence. Finally, it suggests that the government should invest in conflict resolution and mediation programs in order to address any underlying issues that could lead to violence.
In conclusion, it is clear that there is a potential for violence in the upcoming elections in Nigeria. In order to ensure a peaceful election, it is important that we work towards peace and understanding between all parties involved. This can be achieved through dialogue, negotiation, and compromise. By doing so, we can ensure that all voices are heard and that the will of the people is respected. Only then can we create a stable and prosperous future for Nigeria.